城际轨道交通可达性与城市经济发展的关系分析
胡明伟1,2,3,4吴雯琳1赵千1,2,3,4何国庆1

1.深圳大学土木与交通工程学院,广东深圳518060;2.深圳大学滨海城市韧性基础设施教育部重点实验室,广东深圳518060;3.深圳大学未来地下城市研究院,广东深圳518060;4.深圳市地铁地下车站绿色高效智能建造重点实验室,广东深圳518060

交通运输工程;经济发展;粤港澳大湾区;可达性;城际轨道交通;双重差分模型;耦合协调度

Analysis on the relationship between accessibility of intercity rail transit and urban economic development
HU Mingwei1,2,3,4,WU Wenlin1,ZHAO Qian1,2,3,4,and HE Guoqing1

1.College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong Province, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of Coastal Urban Resilient Infrastructures of Ministry of Education, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong Province, P. R. China;3.Underground Polis Academy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong Province, P. R. China;4.Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Green, Efficient and Intelligent Construction of Underground Metro Station, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong Province, P. R. China

transportation engineering; economic development; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA); accessibility; intercity rail transit; difference-in-difference model; coupling coordination degree

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1249.2022.03287

备注

城际轨道作为区域交通的骨干,对引导和带动粤港澳大湾区经济一体化发展具有重要作用.研究并分析了衡量城际轨道交通和经济发展水平的变量,提出城际轨道交通可达性和经济发展水平的测算方法,构建耦合协调度模型,定量评价城际轨道交通可达性与经济发展水平之间的相关性.运用双重差分模型验证城际轨道线路开通与城市经济发展之间的影响关系.以粤港澳大湾区11座城市为例,进一步研究不同年份城际轨道交通可达性对城市经济的影响.结果表明,城际轨道的开通运营对城市经济具有显著正效益,其弹性系数为0.0128.交通与经济发展越协调的城市,城际铁路开通带来的正向影响越明显.本方法可为区域整体协调发展提供理论与实践指导.
As the backbone of regional transportation development, intercity rail transit plays an important role in guiding and driving the economic integration development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). This paper analyzes and summarizes the variables that measure the level of intercity rail transit and economic development, besides, the paper puts forward the calculation method of intercity rail transit accessibility and economic development level. Furthermore, it constructs the coupling coordination degree model, quantitatively evaluates the correlation between the accessibility of intercity rail transit and the level of economic development by using difference-in-difference (DID) model. Finally, by taking 11 cities in GBA as examples, the paper further studies the impact of intercity rail transit accessibility on urban economy in different years. The results show that intercity rail transit has significant positive benefits on urban economy, and the elastic coefficient is 0.012 8. The more the development of transportation and economy is coordinated, the more obvious the positive impact of intercity railway operation is brought by the opening of the intercity railway. This proposed method can provide theoretical and practical guidance for the overall coordinated development of the region.
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