基于随机后悔广义巢式logit的出行效益评估方法

1)桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西桂林 541004; 2)河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津 300400

交通运输经济; 出行选择; 消费者剩余; 后悔理论; 广义巢式logit模型; Logsum方法

A travel benefits evaluation method based on random regret generalized nested logit model
LI Mengjie1, CHEN Fujian1, and LIN Qinze2

1)School of Architecture and Transportation Engineering, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, P.R.China2)School of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300400, P.R.China

transportation economy; travel choice; consumer's surplus; regret theory; generalized nested logit model; Logsum method

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1249.2021.02128

备注

目前制定交通政策考虑的因素不尽完善,导致政策实际效果与预期有差距. 为更好评估交通政策变化对消费者福利(出行者选择效益)的影响,更有效捕捉出行方案之间的相似特点,基于后悔理论,联合出发时间、出行方式和路线3个维度构建随机后悔广义巢式logit模型. 结合案例验证,在该模型结构下,使用Logsum消费者剩余度量方法评估政策变化对出行者效益的影响. 结果表明,当一个巢的价格属性或非价格属性变化时,该巢内部对应方案的消费者剩余都会呈不同程度的反比例变化,该方法能较好捕捉方案之间的相似性. 研究结果可为相关部门制定和评价交通政策提供依据.

At present, the factors considered in formulating the transportation policy are not complete, which leads to the gap between the actual effect and expectation. In order to better evaluate the impact of transportation policy changes on consumer welfare(i.e. traveler's choice benefit), and to more effectively capture the similar characteristics among travel schemes, we develop a generalized nested logit model of random regret based on regret theory which is constructed by combining three aspects of data: the departure time, travel mode and route. In case study, the selection probability is interpreted as an approximate probability demand curve, and the Logsum consumer surplus measurement method is used to evaluate the impact of changes between two policies on traveler benefits under this model structure. The result shows that when the price attribute or the non-price attribute of a nest changes, the consumer surplus of the corresponding alternatives within the nest changes in varying degrees in inverse proportion, thus it better captures the similarity between the schemes. The research results provide reference for relevant departments to formulate and evaluate transportation policies.

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