基于SIQR模型的新冠肺炎期间深圳市防控措施分析

1)深圳大学高等研究院,广东深圳518060; 2)安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院,安徽合肥230036

应用数学; 传播动力学; 定量分析; 新型冠状病毒; 防疫; 全国迁徙数据

Analysis of prevention measures in Shenzhen based on SIQR model during the novel coronavirus pneumonia
XU Renzhe1, WANG Jiawei2, YE Shenghao1, and WANG Xiong1

1)Institute for Advanced Study, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong Province, P.R.China 2)School of Information and Computer, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, Anhui Province, P.R.China

applied mathematics; transmission dynamics; quantitative analysis; novel coronavirus; epidemic prevention; national population mobility data

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1249.2020.03257

备注

自新型冠状病毒肺炎爆发以来,以中国深圳市为代表的输入型地区疫情随着各项防控措施的出台很快趋于稳定.通过传播动力学SIQR(susceptible infectious quarantined recovered)模型模拟深圳市真实疫情发展,并对各项防控措施的力度进行打分,对不同措施得分下的疫情发展进行模拟.结果表明,若武汉推迟“封城”15 d,深圳的染病人数将增长69.5倍.当前深圳输入人口管控为80分、个人防疫措施为92分、城市内部人口流动管控为84分.与全球其他地区相比,深圳市全方位和大力度的疫情防控有效避免了疫情在当地的爆发.当放松人口流动管控至40分时,若个人防疫力度为60分,感染人数会增至约900人; 但若个人防疫力度为20分,感染人数会增至4百万人以上.因此,在疫情期间适当放松人口流动管控时,应时刻保持高水平的个人防疫力度.

The epidemic situation in the novel coronavirus input areas represented by Shenzhen has quickly stabilized under various prevention and control measures, since the novel coronavirus outbreak in China. In this paper, we use the SIQR(susceptible infection quarantined recovered)model of transmission dynamics to simulate the real epidemic development of Shenzhen, and score the strength of various control measures, simulate the epidemic development under different measures scores. Our results show that if the lockdown of Wuhan had been delayed for 15 days, the number of people infected in Shenzhen would increase by 69.5 times. The scores of input population control, personal epidemic prevention measures, and urban internal population flow control are 80, 92 and 84 points, respectively. Compared with other regions of the world, the all-round and vigorous epidemic prevention in Shenzhen has effectively prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the local area. When the population flow control was relaxed to 40 points, if the personal epidemic prevention was 60 points, the number of infected people would increase to around 9 hundred, but if the personal epidemic prevention was 20 points, the number of infected people would increase to more than 4 million. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a high level of personal protection when the population flow control is relaxed.

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