李晓伟,王 炜,杨 敏,等.基于径向基和Logistic的民航运输与高铁竞争因素研究[J].深圳大学学报理工版,2016,33(06):653-660.[doi:10.3724/SP.J.1249.2016.06653 ]
Li Xiaowei,Wang Wei,Yang Min,et al.Competitive factors between civil aviation and high-speed rail based on radial basis function and logistic regression[J].Journal of Shenzhen University Science and Engineering,2016,33(06):653-660.[doi:10.3724/SP.J.1249.2016.06653 ]
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基于径向基和Logistic的民航运输与高铁竞争因素研究
李晓伟1,2,3,4,王 炜1,3,杨 敏1,3,王 昊1,3,徐铖铖1,3

1)东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096; 2)西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,陕西西安 710055 3)现代城市交通技术协同创新研究中心,江苏南京 210096; 4)西部建筑科技国家重点实验室,陕西西安 710055

交通运输系统工程; 民航; 高铁; 径向基神经网络; Logistic回归分析; 运输体系规划

Competitive factors between civil aviation and high-speed rail based on radial basis function and logistic regression
Li Xiaowei1,2,3,4,Wang Wei1,3,Yang Min1,3,

Li Xiaowei1,2,3,4,Wang Wei1,3,Yang Min1,3, Wang Hao1,3, and Xu Chengcheng1,31)School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu Province, P.R.China2)School of Civil Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi'an 710055, Shaanxi Province, P.R.China3)China Collaborative Innovation Center of China's Modern Traffic Technology, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu Province, P.R.China4)State Key Laboratory of Architecture Science and Technology in West China, Xi'an 710055, Shaanxi Province, P.R.China

transportationsystems engineering; civil aviation; high-speed rail; radial basis function(RBF)neural network; logistic regression analysis; transportation system planning

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1249.2016.06653

备注

分析旅客个体出行需求和交通供给对影响民航运输与高铁竞争的因素,选取6个维度17个影响因子,利用径向基(radial basis function, RBF)神经网络和Logistic 回归方法分析影响飞机和高铁竞争的主要驱动力.结果表明,RBF神经网络分析得到影响飞机与高铁竞争的驱动因子从大到小依次是运行时间、出行距离、票价、准时性和到站时间; Logistic回归分析得到影响飞机高铁竞争的显著性因素依次是运行时间、出行距离、票价、到站时间和准时性; 飞机与高铁竞争受运输方式自身属性(如运行时间、票价和准时性)影响最大,其次是接驳属性(如到站时间),而个体属性和购票属性特征的影响相对较小.

The competitive factors that affect civil aviation transportation and high speed railway are analyzed from two aspects of individual travel demand and traffic supply. Seventeen factors of six dimensions are selected, and radial basis function(RBF)neural network and logistic regression are used to analyze the main competitive factors of the aircraft and the high speed railway. The results show that competitive factors in decending order of influence in turn are the running time, travel distance, fare, reliability, punctuality and arrival time according to the conclusion of RBF. However, the competitive factors from large to small in turn are the running time, travel distance, fare, reliability, arrival time, and punctuality according to the logistic regression analysis. Overall, the greatest factor affecting the competition between civil aviation and high-speed rail is the transport mode property, such as running time, price and punctuality, followed by connection property, such as arrival time. The influence of individual attributes and ticket attributes is relatively little.

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