[1]崔洪军,张凤云,朱敏清,等.基于前景理论的城际公共客运客流敏感性分析[J].深圳大学学报理工版,2022,39(2):185-192.[doi:10.3724/SP.J.1249.2022.02185]
 CUI Hongjun,ZHANG Fengyun,ZHU Minqing,et al.Sensitivity analysis of intercity public passenger flow based on prospect theory[J].Journal of Shenzhen University Science and Engineering,2022,39(2):185-192.[doi:10.3724/SP.J.1249.2022.02185]
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基于前景理论的城际公共客运客流敏感性分析()
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《深圳大学学报理工版》[ISSN:1000-2618/CN:44-1401/N]

卷:
第39卷
期数:
2022年第2期
页码:
185-192
栏目:
交通物流
出版日期:
2022-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Sensitivity analysis of intercity public passenger flow based on prospect theory
文章编号:
202202010
作者:
崔洪军1张凤云1朱敏清2姚胜2
1)河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300400
2)河北工业大学建筑与艺术设计学院,天津300400
Author(s):
CUI Hongjun1 ZHANG Fengyun1 ZHU Minqing2 and YAO Sheng2
1) School of Civil and Transportation, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300400, P. R. China
2) School of Architecture and Art Design, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300400, P. R. China
关键词:
交通运输规划与管理出行时段客流敏感性前景理论城际公共客运配流模型
Keywords:
transportation planning and management travel period passenger flow sensitivity prospect theory intercity public passenger transport assignment model
分类号:
U116.1
DOI:
10.3724/SP.J.1249.2022.02185
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
城际客运通道不同时段交通供需矛盾日渐凸出,存在大量运输资源浪费的现象.为剖析高铁票价变动下不同时段各交通方式的客流敏感性情况,构建广义出行前景成本最小配流模型,计算城际客运通道内不同出行方式各时段的客流量,进一步构建客流敏感性模型及客流敏感度变化率模型.以中国天津至北京城际客运通道作为研究案例进行分析,结果表明,降低票价时各时段各交通方式的客流敏感度变化率接近线性增长;提高票价对各时段各交通方式的影响均较小;在相同票价浮动范围内,负供需差额时段高铁在票价降低和提高时客流敏感性均最大,票价降低对应客流敏感度约为票价提高对应客流敏感度的2倍.研究结果可为优化天津至北京城际客运通道交通结构提供理论参考.
Abstract:
The contradiction between traffic supply and demand in different periods of intercity transport corridor becomes increasingly prominent, and there is a large waste of transportation resources. In order to analyze the passenger flow sensitivity for different modes of transportation at different periods of time under the change of high-speed railway ticket price, a generalized travel prospect cost minimum assignment model is constructed. Then, the passenger flow of different travel modes in each period of the intercity passenger transport corridor is calculated, the passenger flow sensitivity model and the sensitivity rate model are also constructed. Taking Tianjin-Beijing intercity passenger transport corridor as a case study, the results show that when the ticket price reduces, the passenger flow sensitivity change rate of each mode in each period increases linearly. The increase of ticket price has little influence on all modes of transportation in each period. In the same range of ticket price fluctuation, the sensitivity of passenger flow of high-speed railway is the largest when the ticket price changes in the period of negative supply-demand balance, and the sensitivity of passenger flow corresponding to the reduction of ticket price is about twice that of passenger flow corresponding to the increase of ticket price. The research work provides a theoretical reference for optimizing the traffic structure of Tianjin-Beijing intercity passenger transport corridor.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

Received: 2021-04-15; Accepted: 2021-06-17; Online (CNKI): 2021-08-17
Foundation: Technology Innovation Project of Hebei Province (19970808D); Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (E2019202449); High Level Talents Project of Hebei Province (A201905003)
Corresponding author: Professor ZHU Minqing.E-mail: 992966624@qq.com
Citation: CUI Hongjun, ZHANG Fengyun, ZHU Minqing, et al. Sensitivity analysis of intercity public passenger flow based on prospect theory [J]. Journal of Shenzhen University Science and Engineering, 2022, 39(2): 185-192.(in Chinese)

基金项目:河北省技术创新引导计划资助项目(19970808D);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2019202449);河北省高层次人次才资助项目(A201905003)
作者简介:崔洪军(1974—),河北工业大学教授、博士生导师. 研究方向:交通运输规划管理与控制.E-mail: cuihj1974@126.com
引 文:崔洪军,张凤云,朱敏清,等.基于前景理论的城际公共客运客流敏感性分析[J].深圳大学学报理工版,2022,39(2):185-192.

更新日期/Last Update: 2022-03-30