[1]赵玉岩,陆继龙,郝立波,等.松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg污染风险灰色预测[J].深圳大学学报理工版,2011,28(No.4(283-376)):368-372.
 ZHAO Yu-yan,LU Ji-long,HAO Li-bo,et al.Grey prediction of Cd,Hg pollution risk in Songhua Lake sediments[J].Journal of Shenzhen University Science and Engineering,2011,28(No.4(283-376)):368-372.
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松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg污染风险灰色预测()
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《深圳大学学报理工版》[ISSN:1000-2618/CN:44-1401/N]

卷:
第28卷
期数:
2011年No.4(283-376)
页码:
368-372
栏目:
环境与能源
出版日期:
2011-07-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Grey prediction of Cd,Hg pollution risk in Songhua Lake sediments
文章编号:
1000-2618(2011)04-0368-05
作者:
赵玉岩陆继龙郝立波孙立吉
吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院,长春 130026
Author(s):
ZHAO Yu-yanLU Ji-longHAO Li-boand SUN Li-ji
College of Geoexploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, P.R.China
关键词:
地球化学 GM(11)模型重金属污染沉积物灰色模型污染风险松花湖
Keywords:
geochemistryGM(11) model heavy metal pollutionCadmium(Cd)Mercury(Hg)sedimentsgray model(GM)pollution riskSonghua Lake
分类号:
X 52;P 596
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据松花湖沉积物平均沉积速率,将松花湖沉积柱镉(Cd)和汞(Hg)元素质量分数实测数据进行线性插值,得到松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数变化的时间序列数据.运用灰色系统理论建模方法,采用1943-2006年时段数据,建立松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数演化的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型.残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验均表明,该模型精度较高,可用于松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数中长期预测.由预测结果可知,松花湖沉积物Cd和Hg质量分数有逐年缓慢递增趋势,虽然在短期内不会出现明显的Cd或Hg污染;但如果不采取及时有效措施,控制Cd和Hg的污染源,松花湖沉积物将有Cd、Hg污染不断加剧的风险.
Abstract:
From the average sediment rate of Songhua Lake,the time series data of Cd and Hg contents evolution were obtained by the linear interpolation of measured data.The GM(1,1) prediction model of Cd and Hg contents evolution was set up using data from 1943 to 2006.Residuals,posterior deviation and correlation tests indicated its high precision,thus the model can be used in long-term forecast of Cd and Hg contents.The predicted results showed that Cd and Hg contents had a slowly increasing trend year by year,although Cd and Hg pollution did not appear obviously in the short-term.But if effective measures of controlling sources of Cd and Hg pollution are not taken,the risk of Cd and Hg pollution in Songhua Lake sediment will increase.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2010-06-23;修回日期:2011-01-19
基金项目:中国地质调查局多目标生态农业地球化学调查项目(200414200003)
作者简介:赵玉岩(1981-),男(汉族),山东省平原县人,吉林大学讲师、博士.E-mail:zhaoyuyan@jlu.edu.cn
通讯作者:郝立波 (1961-),男(汉族),吉林大学教授、博士生导师.E-mail:haolb@tom.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2011-07-22