高速公路行程时间可靠性的小波密度估计

1)长安大学公路学院,陕西西安 710064; 2)长安大学电子与控制工程学院,陕西西安 710064

交通工程; 高速公路; 行程时间可靠性; 概率密度估计; 参数估计; 对数正态分布; 非参数估计; 小波密度估计

Highway travel time reliability modeling based on wavelet density estimation
Chen Jiaona1, Zhang Shengrui1, and Jin Yinli2

Chen Jiaona1, Zhang Shengrui1, and Jin Yinli21)School of Highway, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi Province, P.R.China2)School of Electronic and Control Engineering, Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi Province, P.R.China

traffic engineering; highway; travel time reliability; probability density estimation; parameter estimation; log-normal distribution; non-parametric estimation; wavelet density estimation

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1249.2016.04432

备注

针对传统参数估计方法依赖于事先对总体分布假设的情况,在概率分布簇不确定的前提下,提出一种基于小波密度估计的高速公路行程时间可靠性建模方法.以西安市绕城高速为例,构建了小波密度估计的高速公路行程时间可靠性.实证结果表明,基于小波密度估计的高速公路行程时间分布函数明显优于其他方法.同时探讨了电子不停车收费系统对高速公路行程时间可靠性的影响.

In the situation of an uncertain probability of distribution clusters, the model of highway travel time reliability based on wavelet density estimation is proposed to overcome the shortcomings of traditional parameter methods where accuracy depends on the distribution hypotheses. The results show that wavelet density estimation(WDE)is superior to other methods in highway travel time distribution estimation. Finally, the example verification is carried out on the highway sections in Xi'an of Shaanxi province. The test result shows that the proposed method is effective. In addition, the influence of electronic toll collection(ETC)on highway travel time reliability is discussed.